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RECENT ARTICLES
Inflation BIG Picture: Boomers got rich by lucky timing. Next Gen to get higher inflation & rates
25 May 2026•9m READ
Owen’s Market Pulse: 23 May 2026 + Xi-Trump-Putin talks, Budget tax debate
23 May 2026•10m READ
Bitcoin is just a bet on the US tech hype cycle. Will it ever live up to its lofty ideals?
18 May 2026•10m READ
EDITOR'S PICKS
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australian shares
Impact of 31 wars & crises on share markets: mostly quick recoveries and ABOVE-average returns!
18 Mar 202612m
03
04
population demographics
Paris Olympics – who were the real winners adjusted for population and wealth?
12 Aug 20245m
RECENT ARTICLES
27 May 20265m
Chemo Round 6 update: Game of Gloves!
Hello and welcome to my Round 6 update on my cancer/chemo journey. In recent rounds of chemo, most of my side effects have been similar from one round to the next.
25 May 20269m
Inflation BIG Picture: Boomers got rich by lucky timing. Next Gen to get higher inflation & rates
Here's my go-to chart on the BIG Picture on inflation over the past 150 years. Five BIG lessons: 1 - Inflation is global, because capital is global, and monetary theory/dogma/fads are global. 2 - Overall UPWARD trend in inflation over past 150 years as monetary systems moved from metal-backing, to exchange standards, then to unrestricted fiat paper money. 3 - Multi-decade inflation phases along the way as each monetary system is abandoned and replaced by the next. 4 - The big inflation spikes ha
23 May 202610m
Owen’s Market Pulse: 23 May 2026 + Xi-Trump-Putin talks, Budget tax debate
Here’s my latest quick take on what’s going in global markets for Aussie investors. OVERALL – US/global tech / ai / chip boom back in full swing (at bubble-like pricing levels) despite US/Iran war dragging on, high energy prices, and rising inflation. Primed and due for major correction, just waiting for the trigger/s. Share markets edge up a little, but bond yields on the rise on fears of inflationary government spending / debt, despite signs of slowdown as high energy prices blunt confidence
18 May 202610m
Bitcoin is just a bet on the US tech hype cycle. Will it ever live up to its lofty ideals?
I do not own Bitcoin, but I do like the underlying utopian ideals of citizen-controlled digital currencies out of the reach of governments, banks, central banks, taxes, regulation, intermediaries, scrutiny, hackers, etc, and I have followed developments closely since the early 1980s. BTC is touted as a means of exchange, a store of value, and a hedge against inflation, political turmoil, US default. But in practice it has turned out to be the OPPOSITE.
16 May 20268m
Owen’s Market Pulse - 16 May 2026
Given rapidly changing markets in the current environment, and an increase in queries from advisers, portfolio managers, commentators and media, I have decided to share one of my regular tools to track key market barometers and drivers of global investment markets. This is something I do anyway in order to keep track of what’s going on and why. I track and analyse thousands of data points across all markets and asset classes, but the most important barometers and drivers of local and global
13 May 202619m
Pre-budget quick quiz - Which side has a better record on Fiscal Responsibility: Labor -v- Libs?
Since Federation: ‘Right’ governments have run surpluses more often than ‘Left’ governments. But ‘Timing is everything! - the Left happened to be in power during the big build-ups of deficits and debts in the two World Wars, when the spending was bi-partisan. In the post-WW2 era: Left wins. The Left have also run larger deficits on average than the Right, but post-WW2 the average deficits have been the same for both sides. My verdict - Equal points to Left and Right since Federation.
5 May 20268m
Australia’s highest cash rate in the world just got even higher – and the job’s not done yet!
Last month I outlined five simple reasons why Australia has the highest cash rate among its peers, and I warned that further rate hikes were needed to tackle inflation. Today (5 May 2026), the RBA hiked rates for a third time this year, and of the course government blamed the war in Iran, but the fact is that inflation was already well above target BEFORE the war. Following the RBA’s third rate hike today, here is my updated story on why Australian cash rates are highest in the world
1 May 202619m
April 2026 snapshot: Shares rebound on hopes of war ending, but stalemate the likely outcome
Share markets around the world rebounded in April after a very brief war / inflation scare in March, but the ASX remains a global laggard. Investors have two positives to support their bullishness. The first is hope that Trump retreats (dressed up as an epic ‘win’ of course) because his most urgent goal is to get fuel prices down in order to retain MAGA voters in the November mid-term elections.
27 Apr 20265m
Chemo Round 4: Getting used to the routine, still much better than expected
By Round 4 I’m getting used to the routine. Now one-third of the way through my 12-fortnight chemo program following cancer surgery in January. So far, nothing debilitating. Back to normal day-to-day life by about day 6 or 7 (ie 3-4 days recovery after 3 days of chemo). Still about a dozen chemo side effects. Nothing major so far, and the mix continues to change each time. I put my chemo side effects into 5 columns: – ‘Gone’, ‘Less’, ‘Same’, ‘Worse’, ‘New’, plus a new column I have added: ‘Permanent?’, because some of the side effects are taking longer to wear off and may become permanent. Bottom line: so far, the whole cancer surgery/chemo journey has been much better than I had been expecting. Once again, a huge thank you for all the kind words of support and encouragement I have received from near and far. Very much appreciated!
β = Cov(Rᵢ,Rₘ)/Var(Rₘ) Sharpe = (Rₚ-Rբ)/σₚ VaR = μ-zₐ·σ CAGR = (EV/BV)^(1/n) - 1
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R = ∏(1+rᵢ) - 1 β = Cov(Rᵢ,Rₘ)/Var(Rₘ) Sharpe = (Rₚ-Rբ)/σₚ VaR = μ-zₐ·σ PV = Σ CFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ
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ASHLEY OWEN, CFA
FOUNDER, OWEN ANALYTICS • 40 YEARS MARKET EXPERIENCE
Independent, non-conflicted financial market analysis backed by 40 years of hands-on experience across every major Australian and global market cycle. CFA Charter. Law degrees from Sydney. No AI. All human. All original research.
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